Theories of Ice and Fire: Cersei’s prophecy and the Valonqar 

Guest contributor Locke is back for a second installment of Theories of Ice and Fire. Locke will walk us through popular

theories, their context and nuances, and how they may be portrayed in 

One of the most frequently discussed yet most mysterious prophecies is that of Cersei’s ‘valonqar’, who is first mentioned in Book 4 of

. It has been confirmed that this prophecy will appear in Season 5 – one of the first proper flashback sequences we will see in the series. This increases its potential significance all the more.

I want to discuss this prophecy in detail, running through the potential candidates for who this ‘valonqar’ may be, based on textual evidence and theories. I will then attempt to draw my own conclusions. Naturally this topic includes major book spoilers.

So the best place to start is with the prophecy itself. Let’s revisit the famous passage from

, in which Cersei visits the tent of Maggy the Frog as a young girl, with her friend Melara Hetherspoon. It is worth noting before reading that “Maggy” is her nickname, but that it is actually clear this refers to her being a ‘maegi’ – similar to Mirri Maz Duur in

. This later conversation between Cersei and Qyburn spells it out for us:

“Is that how you say it? The woman would suck a drop of blood from your finger, and tell you what your morrows held.”

“Bloodmagic is the darkest kind of sorcery. Some say it is the most powerful as well.” (AFFC, Chapter 12, Cersei)

We must therefore take this use of blood magic and Maggy’s words very seriously. Here is the passage itself:

The old woman’s eyes were yellow, and crusted all about with something vile. In Lannisport it was said that she had been young and beautiful when her husband had brought her back from the east with a load of spices, but age and evil had left their marks on her. (AFFC, Chapter 12, Cersei)

This is interesting, knowing that Mirri Maz Duur had also studied her darkest magics in Asshai, in the far east.

She was short, squat, and warty, with pebbly greenish jowls. Her teeth were gone and her dugs hung down to her knees. You could smell sickness on her if you stood too close, and when she spoke her breath was strange and strong and foul.

“We came for a foretelling,” young Cersei told her.

“We heard that you can see into the morrow,” said Melara. “We just want to know what men we’re going to marry.”

Listen to her, the queen would have cried if she had her tongue. You still have time to flee. Run, you little fools!

The girl with the golden curls put her hands upon her hips.

“Give us our foretelling, or I’ll go to my lord father and have you whipped for insolence.”

“Please,” begged Melara. “Just tell us our futures, then we’ll go.”

“Some are here who have no futures,” Maggy muttered in her terrible deep voice.

This alludes to Melara’s death shortly after the visit to the tent, falling down a well. Many believe this was Cersei’s doing – but that is a separate discussion, and best sidelined for now. The important thing to note is that Maggy accurately predicted her imminent death.

She pulled her robe about her shoulders and beckoned the girls closer.

“Come, if you will not go. Fools. Come, yes. I must taste your blood.”

Melara paled, but not Cersei. A lioness does not fear a frog, no matter how old and ugly she might be. She should have gone, she should have listened, she should have run away. Instead she took the dagger Maggy offered her, and ran the twisted iron blade across the ball of her thumb. Then she did Melara too.

In the dim green tent, the blood seemed more black than red. Maggy’s toothless mouth trembled at the sight of it. “Here,” she whispered, “give it here.” When Cersei offered her hand, she sucked away the blood with gums as soft as a newborn babe’s. The queen could still remember how queer and cold her mouth had been.

“Three questions may you ask,” the crone said, once she’d had her drink. “You will not like my answers. Ask, or begone with you.”

This clearly states that Cersei will marry Robert Baratheon.

Beneath her golden curls, the girl’s face wrinkled up in puzzlement. For years after, she took those words to mean that she would not marry Rhaegar until after his father Aerys had died.

“I will be queen, though?” asked the younger her.

“Aye.” Malice gleamed in Maggy’s yellow eyes.

“Queen you shall be… until there comes another, younger and more beautiful, to cast you down and take all that you hold dear.”

This is the first conundrum, presenting us with several options. I will run through candidates for this later in the post.

Anger flashed across the child’s face. “If she tries I will have my brother kill her.” Even then she would not stop, willful child as she was. She still had one more question due her, one more glimpse into her life to come.

“Oh, aye. Six-and-ten for him, and three for you.”

These are very clearly Cersei’s three children by Jaime, and all sixteen of Robert Baratheon’s bastards.

That made no sense to Cersei. Her thumb was throbbing where she’d cut it, and her blood was dripping on the carpet. How could that be? she wanted to ask, but she was done with her questions.

It is strange that Maggy continues speaking, despite Cersei having asked her three questions. This leads me to the conclusion that her continued statements –which are the crucial elements of the prophecy – are still related to the previous question, but more on this later. Here is the crux of the prophecy:

“Gold shall be their crowns and gold their shrouds,” she said. “And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you.”

“What is a valonqar? Some monster?” The golden girl did not like that foretelling. (AFFC, Chapter 12, Cersei)

“It’s High Valyrian, it means little brother.” She had asked Septa Saranella about the word, after Melara drowned. (AFFC, Chapter 39)

So from this prophecy, we can conclude that three crucial events will happen that we haven’t reached yet by the end of

. The first is a ‘younger queen’ taking all that Cersei holds dear, the second is the crowning and subsequent death of Tommen and Myrcella – as alluded to by golden crowns and golden shrouds – and the third: Cersei’s own death at the hands of the valonqar or “little brother.”

So first, I will address the question of this younger queen. At present there are several options as to who this could be:

Now this would be the first option that springs to mind, given that by the end of

, Cersei’s conflict with Margaery has landed her in a terrible predicament, awaiting a trial that could result in both of their deaths. Moreover, Margaery’s influence over Tommen had started to create distance between mother and son.

Yet if we conclude that the things Cersei ‘holds dear’ are her children Tommen and Myrcella, her regency, and despite its tensions her relationship with Jaime, then we might question just how far Margaery has directly ‘taken’ all these things from her. Much of Cersei’s downfall so far has been the result of her own paranoia and clumsiness, and this more than anything has been the reason she has lost her regency and created a distance between herself and Jaime. Margaery has had nothing to do with Myrcella, nor with Jaime.

What makes this option even more unlikely is that Cersei herself believes Margarey to be the ‘younger queen’, and knowing GRRM’s avoidance of the obvious, this almost certainly makes her a red herring.

We have all been waiting for Dany to arrive at Westeros and take King’s Landing since book one, so while Margaery is the most obvious ‘younger queen’ in Cersei’s mind, I believe that Dany is the most obvious candidate for the  ‘younger queen’ for the readers. GRRM is aware of this, and while it is perfectly possible that she might arrive and ultimately be responsible for Cersei’s downfall, I for one think that this is too obvious and that Dany is the reader’s red herring.

However, it is worth considering Dany in particular because, of all the candidates, she is the one that I feel would display the least mercy to the Lannisters. Knowing her fondness for taking political hostages from her stint in Meereen, it is probable that if Dany took King’s Landing, she would take Myrcella and Tommen as hostages from Cersei, treating them well, but separating them from her mother – an agonising prospect for Cersei. If this were to happen, then the eventual deaths of Tommen and Myrcella are likely to be terrible accidents, akin to the sack of King’s Landing and Gregor Clegane’s murder of Elia Martell’s children, or Rickard Karstark’s disobedient murder of Willem Lannister and Tion Frey.

Given the rate at which Sansa is ‘learning the game of thrones’, and the fact that she is looking increasingly to become a Queen in the North, it would certainly be rather satisfying for Sansa to be the one to return to King’s Landing and cast down Cersei, the woman who held her prisoner for so long. Sansa is also consistently described as ‘beautiful’ throughout the novels.

I think Sansa is a particularly strong candidate due to her ability to take all three things that Cersei holds dear. Looking at Jaime’s movements at the end of

, it seems likely that he will end up serving the north in some shape or form – aiding Brienne and/or Lady Stoneheart. This may well coincide with their finally finding Sansa – a plot arc that has been set up as an oath that both Brienne and Jaime are bound to from as early as

. Jaime siding with Sansa would ultimately mean his final betrayal of Cersei. Following this, Sansa becoming Queen and separating Cersei from her children are also both conceivable possibilities – though it remains to be seen who Sansa might end up marrying. She is definitely one to watch.

Arianne is currently being set up to marry Aegon VI in a new political alliance, judging from her recent sample chapter in

. This would also make her a queen, and as we know, Aegon is imminently looking to conquer King’s Landing. Along with Nymeria Sand, who is about to take the Dornish seat on the Small Council, the Dornish quest for vengeance and Aegon’s desire for the Iron Throne may directly lead to the death of Cersei’s children and Arianne becoming queen.

While the effect this may have on Cersei’s relationship with Jaime seems minimal, it is, however, likely that Aegon will sit the throne for a short while. GRRM has said that several people will sit the Iron Throne before the series ends, and personally I believe that Aegon’s stint will occur, and will both influence and shortly precede Dany’s arrival at Westeros. This makes Arianne a likely candidate for the younger queen. This also ties into the Dornish theme of protecting the children from the spoils of war, which has been heavily foreshadowed to be a pipe dream due to come crashing down at any moment. Beginning with Myrcella’s recent disfigurement, the Dornish playing an unwitting part in the brutal murder of Tommen and Myrcella would fit the theme of their desire for vengeance and power overwhelming their desire for peace, and resulting in the murder of innocents.

There are other candidates that have been mentioned, such as Myrcella Baratheon, Jeyne Westerling (!) and even the young Cersei herself, being responsible for her own downfall. I believe that these are all very unlikely options, though, and that the strongest bets at present are Sansa or Arianne.

[Editor Note: The absence of Arianne from season 5 and presumably the following seasons of

 may have ramifications for Arianne fulfilling the prophecy in the novels]

With these potential events in mind, this brings us to the question of the valonqar. Let’s address the candidates for Cersei’s killer:

Cersei, in her hatred and paranoia concerning Tyrion – especially since Tywin’s death – has long believed Tyrion to be the valonqar. She has numerous dreams and thoughts throughout her chapters in

in which she sees visions of Tyrion breaking into the Red Keep and murdering her.

While Tyrion is indeed Cersei’s ‘little brother’ – both in terms of age and physically as a dwarf – it just seems too crazy that Cersei would have got this one right. And while Tyrion does have a certain hatred for his sister, I personally cannot see him strangling her, especially after the self-loathing and shame he carries about since strangling Shae and murdering his father. This makes him both a kinslayer and a strangler already – two things that he would become again simultaneously by strangling Cersei. I believe that Tyrion has already reached his darkest point and that this is not a place GRRM will return him to. It makes no narrative sense and will only serve as regression for the character.

Jaime is the obvious candidate that Cersei is overlooking when she considers who the ‘valonqar’ might be, and is many people’s choice for the fulfiller of this dark prophecy.  Cersei’s misinterpretation would be both ironic and tragic, and a rather poetic end for both characters. Yet there is all the evidence to consider:

Indeed, while Jaime is Cersei’s twin, he is still her younger brother.

“Jaime and I are more than brother and sister. We are one person in two bodies. We shared a womb together. He came into this world holding my foot, our old maester said.”  – Cersei to Eddard (AGOT, Chapter 45, Eddard)

Add to this the numerous textual examples alluding to Cersei and Jaime’s deaths somehow being intertwined within the same narrative arc. Take a look at the following:

“I cannot die while Cersei lives, he told himself. We will die together as we were born together.” (ASOS, Chapter 31, Jaime)

“We will leave this world together, as we once came into it.” (AFFC, Chapter 46, Cersei)

“If he were dead, I would know it. We came into this world together, Uncle. He would not go without me.” (ADWD, Epilogue)

Then there are the allusions to Jaime and Cersei being ‘strangers’ to each other. The Stranger is of course, the god representing death and the unknown.

“He was your twin, your shadow, your other half, another voice whispered. Once, perhaps, she thought. No longer. He has become a stranger to me.” (AFFC, Chapter 12, Cersei)

“I thought that I was the Warrior and Cersei was the Maid, but all the time she was the Stranger, hiding her true face from my gaze.” (AFFC, Chapter 30, Jaime)

But despite all of this, we have to question: is this truly where Jaime’s arc is taking him? His oath to serve his king may soon be compromised by a new oath, to serve Stoneheart or the North – but would this really drive him to become a kinslayer? And he may have completely distanced himself from his sister by the end of

, choosing not to come to her aid, but does this really mean he would go so far as killing her? We must also question the redemption arc that Jaime has undergone, and the question of morality. Would he truly kill his own sister in such brutal fashion and upend all the moral progress his character has made?

“He slipped his golden hand around his wine cup and raised it up…[He] concentrated on the fare before him, tearing off chunks of bread with his left hand and fumbling at his wine cup with his right.” (AFFC, Chapter 30, Jaime)

Jaime’s golden hand is obviously shaped to have a slight grip around small-ish objects, such as wine glasses, or sword handles. First and foremost, it would not be wide enough to ‘wrap’ around someone’s neck, which would require stretching out one’s hand to a far wider span than is usual, and then applying manual pressure to choke the victim through the action of grip – another quality that the golden hand does not support. The golden hand is only designed to ensure a moderate grip on everyday objects, and is not capable of this sort of action.

Moreover, the very use of the phrase “his hands” wrapping around her throat in the original prophecy by Maggy the Frog is perhaps another suggestion in this direction. Jaime has actually lost one of his hands – and only one of his hands remains. It goes without saying that the golden hand is not an actual hand…and as stated, it is not a hand that is capable of strangulation.

There is one more factor to consider, however. What if Jaime strangling Cersei is an act of release, or of mercy, rather than cold-blooded murder? Have a look again at this part of the prophecy:

“When your tears have drowned you”

Now we could take this to mean Cersei’s own tears, out of grief for her murdered children, and the loss of all that she holds dear. Indeed, we have seen her weep multiple times in her last chapters in

But we also know that Cersei has access to the Tears of Lys – the poison that famously killed Jon Arryn. Furthermore, she was prepared to use them on herself and Tommen at the conclusion of the Battle of Blackwater, choosing suicide instead of submission, but of course Tywin arrived to save the day just in time.

Now it is pretty clear that at some point soon, someone new is going to arrive and take King’s Landing, whether this be Dany, Aegon, Stannis, Sansa or another claimant. Could this trigger the same kind of response in Cersei? If so, and if she swallows the Tears of Lys to end it all, perhaps someone will arrive and strangle her to release her from this painful death. The gift of mercy is one that has been brought up several times as a theme in

, and this more poetic translation of ‘tears drowning you’ would certainly be a powerful end for the character. So this may well be Jaime, and then the moral question is somewhat resolved.

Weighing up all the evidence, Jaime is certainly not one to dismiss as a candidate. But while he has the most textual evidence to support his being the ‘valonqar’, we must question the details above and also the fact that he is a rather obvious choice following Tyrion. GRRM may not make it this easy for us to guess the candidate, and so I think that Tyrion and Jaime could both be red herrings. In light of this, we should have a close examination of the remaining candidates.

Now this is an interesting option, because if we look at the prophecy again, we must realise that Maggy’s words follow on from this question:

It is therefore reasonable to assume that the part about the ‘valonqar’ still relates to this question, and isn’t random, spurious prophecy concerning Cersei’s death out of nowhere. This reading immediately rules out both Tyrion and Jaime as candidates, and instead opens up the options of other ‘little brothers’. The first that jumps to mind is of course the king – Robert Baratheon’s – only living little brother, Stannis.

This is a very likely option, in my mind. If Stannis wins the battle of the North, which I can see happening early on in

, he will wish to resume his relentless pursuit for the Iron Throne. With other factors considered such as a remaining Stark (Sansa or Rickon), possibly returning to claim Winterfell, I believe it is likely that they will allow Stannis to move south with his conquest, seeing as he freed the North from the Boltons, albeit with certain conditions or fealties.

Moreover, after his surviving this long, it would be unsatisfying in a narrative sense to not see Stannis sit the Iron Throne at least briefly – for this has been the ultimate goal of the character from day one, and the justice that drives him. While he may only sit there for a moment before being overthrown by another claimant such as Dany, I could certainly see him finally arriving there and strangling Cersei, who was after all responsible for the murder of his brother and the crowning of two false kings that displaced his rightful claim to the Iron Throne.

Moreover, this event occurring has already been foreshadowed in the show – and we should take this very seriously due to the fact that the show is choosing to include the ‘valonqar’ prophecy out of the numerous stream of prophecies that have not made it into the show so far (many of which the fanbase deem far more significant).

At the end of Season 2, Stannis grabs Melisandre by the throat, having lost the battle of Blackwater, and starts to ‘choke the life’ from her there and then. This, along with numerous examples of violence in the name of justice, demonstrates what this character is capable of in the face of those who he feels have betrayed him. The question of Stannis’ hard and uncompromising notion of morality and justice perfectly fits with the idea of Stannis strangling Cersei.

Tommen is the only other remaining candidate if we take seriously the idea of the prophecy only relating to the king or Cersei’s children. And again we must ask: why would Maggy give any more information to Cersei than what their agreement for three questions states? Why would she go off topic and tell Cersei about her death if it wasn’t related to her initial question, which was about the king and her children?

So, Tommen is the little brother of Cersei’s three children. Yes, this may seem unlikely on the face of it: Tommen is a sweet child and has no reason to kill his mother at present, nor the strength to strangle her. But, again we should look at the evidence.

It is implied that all of Cersei’s children will die before her. It has also been strongly set up from the opening chapter of the first book that we will have an invasion of the Others at some point in the final two books. What does this mean? Tons of wights will start to appear in the next two books.

And when we look at methods by which we have seen wights kill, strangulation seems to be one of the most favoured. Thanks to Gecco78 at Westeros for picking up on this one.

, we see Waymar Royce come back to life as a wight and strangle Will.

“Long, elegant hands brushed his cheek, then tightened around his throat. They were gloved in the finest moleskin and sticky with blood, yet the touch was icy cold.” (AGOT, Prologue)

Then we have Othor came back to life as a wight at the Wall and attempt to kill Lord Mormont, during which he attempts to choke Jon, with a ‘surprising strength’. (AGOT, Chapter 52, Jon)

Indeed, if Tommen has recently been killed and then the Others invade, he may well return as a wight and murder his mother. This is looking very far ahead though and relies almost entirely on speculation.

I have seen many other theories based on the fact that “valonqar” could be taken to simply mean ‘younger sibling’ in a general sense. That then opens up the case for any younger sibling in the whole of Westeros being our valonqar, including speculation about Arya becoming the valonqar to strike Cersei of her list, or the Hound – younger brother of Gregor Clegane, and even Jon Snow – which to me makes no sense at all.

I believe that one of the four discussed above will turn out to be the valonqar, and that the most likely option is actually Stannis, based on characterisation and close analysis of the prophecy itself.

Agree/Disagree? Discuss below! Thanks for reading, and as ever please leave suggestions on future theories you might wish to see analyzed and discussed as the next in the series.

A Game Of Thrones, A Clash Of Kings, A Storm Of Swords, A Feast For Crows, A Dance With Dragons, The Winds of Winter

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I vehemently disagree that the most likely candidate is Stannis. I believe it’s limited to two possibilities – Tyrion and Jaime.

Tyrion is immediately out. Cersei outright names him the valonqar in the books when discussing the prophecy with Taena Merryweather. She’s always wrong. (Same reason Margaery isn’t the younger, more beautiful queen.)

I think the valonqar has to be Jaime. There’s a ton of foreshadowing in regard to Cersei and wildfire. I’m a proponent of the theory that Cersei goes Aerys and tries to burn King’s Landing with wildfire. Jaime strangles her to prevent this – thus saving the city, again – and earning himself a new derogatory nickname, ‘kinslayer’, for his trouble.

People like to dismiss Jaime as the more obvious candidate. But it’s not obvious to Cersei, and that’s where the drama lies.

Once the prophecy of Tommen’s death is fulfilled, Cercei will most likely need to flee Kings Landing for Casterly Rock where Edmure Tully is. Catelyn’s little brother.

Nice catch on Tommen, if Cersei marries Willas/Loras and Tommen marries Margery, Tommen will technically be a younger brother-in-law to Cersei in the same way Stannis would be a younger brother-in-law.

I’m not convinced on who the Valonqar is yet, but these 4 at least fulfill the base requirements of being younger brothers as relating to Cersei (whether naturally or by way of in-laws).

Love the analysis… good job Locke! I just want to add that even if a character is cut out of the series doesn’t necessarily mean that they are not pivotal to the endgame of the story. we are at a point between the show and the books that characters can be thrown out or in based on what story D&D wants to tell. So Arianne is still a strong ‘younger queen’ candidate for me…

Jon Snow being the valanqar relates to him being a “brother” of the nights watch. I too find this unlikely however

Thanks for this great article. Fun to read, and passes the time waiting for an actual S5 trailer to show up.

“Queen you shall be… until there comes another, younger and more beautiful, to cast you down and take all that you hold dear.”

This may not refer to a literal queen replacing Cersei. I think

this is a reference to Brienne of Tarth. Her nickname is “Brienne the Beauty” (not a compliment). She would take away everything Cersei holds dear, namely Jaime’s loyalty and possibly his heart, and she’d take away her children if she tries to rescue them out of King’s Landing when things spiral out of control.

Still, the argument for Sansa Stark is convincing and most likely to happen. Daenerys

probably will never go to KL; she’ll go north to fight the WW and die there with her dragons.

The valonquar will probably be Jaime, for whatever reason. But,

maybe Cersei’s killer will be Loras in revenge for Margaery’s death? Or even Arya, in a Faceless Man disguise as a man who’s a younger brother to someone, to poison Cersei with the Tears of Lys?

It’s a stretch, but that would be an interesting twist.

If Cersei didn’t take Maggy seriously, maybe none of these things would have ever come true. Her actions are making it a self-fulfilling prophecy (not to mention her interpretation is

was when Morgan Freeman’s Vitruvius confesses that he completely made up the prophecy about Chris Pratt’s character, but it came true anyway because he believed it. Prophecies work only if people believed them.

GRRM always says that he hates predictable fiction as a reader and he doesn’t want to write predictable fiction so I wouldn’t take too literally these prophecies, they might not be what they seem.

The valonqar prophecy is one of those things that people seriously overcomplicate trying to figure out the “surprise” GRRM has in store. It’s Jaime. Sure, it’s the obvious twist, but it’s also by far the most tragic and resonant one in Cersei’s arc (compare it to, say, Stannis — where’s the resonance there?). GRRM, unlike D&D, is not obsessed with trying to surprise the audience; he lays on foreshadowing for big events quite thick in many places.

GRRM always says that he hates predictable fiction as a reader and he doesn’t want to write predictable fiction so I wouldn’t take too literally these prophecies, they might not be what they seem.

Many of GRRM’s prophecies are open to many divergent interpretations because of the obscure symbolism, words, etc.; Maggy’s prophecies are not among them. They’re easily the most literal prophecies in the whole series. She says that Melara will be murdered that night by Cersei. Check. She says that Cersei will never marry Rhaegar, but will marry Robert, and correctly (so far as we know, in Robert’s case) guesses how many children they will have. None of this is open to interpretation.

Good job on another post, Locke! We are happy to have you with us.

Since we’re talking about book events far beyond what has happened on the show, it’s probably okay to dodge the spoiler code. Locke’s whole post is speculatory.

Personally, I’ve always loved the idea of Jaime being the one who strangles Cersei and possibly killing himself afterwards. I think that would be a great way to finish both their arcs and it is also quite poetic (but TBH, with GRRM poetic justice isn’t usually the case.)

Flora Linden: One of my favorite moments in The Lego Movie was when Morgan Freeman’s Vitruvius confesses that he completely made up the prophecy about Chris Pratt’s character, but it came true anyway because he believed it. Prophecies work only if people believed them.

I know it’s super unlikely, but my choice for “younger, more beautiful queen” is shireen baratheon following some kind of quasi-magical greyscale cure. Like brienne, SB has been defined by her ugliness: unlike brienne, she will be the actual queen whenever stannis dies (awesomely, because that’s how he does everything). The greyscale thing has been in the background for a while, and with JonConn about to maybe cause a full-on outbreak, I expect it to jump to the fore.

But mainly I love shireen and want her character to become significant, in a non-sacrificed kind of way…

Shireen getting the Iron Throne would be cool. She’d be the most logical choice. Stannis and Daenerys may not survive saving Westeros from the WW, and Sansa, after her nightmare in KL, will probably want to return home and rule in the north.

RandomGoTfan: but TBH, with GRRM poetic justice isn’t usually the case.)

No, but Martin does adhere to a few general theories of story telling, and those do apply here. These include who the primary antagonists are for the protagonists, and the nature of prophecy. Martin is big on making characters both Protagonists and Antagonists. Cersei has now been a protagonist since Feast. Her primary antagonists include Tyrion and Sansa (two of the Top 6 protagonists), and (increasingly) Jaime. In the not too-distant future, Dany will become one: Cersei has somehow managed to ignore Dany so far, but Dany will return to Westeros and that will make it impossible for Cersei to ignore her. (Aegon’s return might do that, too.)

On the issue of Prophecy, prophecy will always be ironic. The valonqar will be a “little brother,” but not the one Cersei thinks. That means it won’t be Tyrion. It won’t be Tommen: he isn’t a protagonist. It won’t be Stannis: he isn’t a protagonist, either, and he has no connection to Cersei in the story. (He does in the plot, but not in the story, and that is a key distinction!) It is going to be someone that Cersei

consider, but hasn’t het: and that is Jaime. (Martin has been setting up an increasingly antagonistic relationship between the two, especially from Jaime towards Cersei as Jaime continues to evolve a conscience.)

As for the Queen, well, that is going to be Daenyrs. We can cross Margaery and Arianne off the lists because they are neither protagonists (well, Arianne is a minor one, but a complete throw-away, and Margaery is a minor one on TV only). Also, Margaery parallels Tyrion here in that Cersei has considered her. Sansa is a protagonist, but she is not in line to be a Queen of

(unless she marries Aegon!); at best she is might become Quee in the North, which would not cast down Cersei. Moreover, Cersei considers Sansa. So, cross out Sansa.

(This also strongly suggests that Cersei will be not just be cast down from any power, but of any hope of returning to power: power is, after all, what she holds most dear except perhaps for her children: and there is a good chance that both will be dead by that point, or that the surviving one [which would have to be Myrcella if she is to wear a crown] will die at that time.)

That leaves Dany. Like Jaime, Cersei

consider Dany: but despite the obvious threat that Dany presents, I don’t think that Cersei

In both cases, Cersei is going to be stunned both by how obvious the truth was and by the fact that she never considered it.

JonGRRM always says that he hates predictable fiction as a reader and he doesn’t want to write predictable fiction so I wouldn’t take too literally these prophecies, they might not be what they seem.

Ah, but prophecies are always ironic: they appear to mean one thing, but they really mean something else. Both aspects of the prophecy will be literally true. They just won’t mean what Cersei thinks that they mean. (Those include Jaime as the “Little Brother” and Dany as the younger more beautiful queen.)

Jon Snow’s name popping up as a possible valonquar may also have to do with that he might be Aerys’s son (presumably Lyanna is raped by him), and if Jaimie and Cersei are also his children (Aerys halving slept with Tywin’s wife), that makes them all half siblings. However, the theory is very far fetched and I think it’s more likely Jon is Rhaegar’s love-child. Jaimie is the stronger candidate. Tommen as a possible “dead” candidate is very interesting though.

I think that some of the possible candidates for the valonqar provided in the comments so far are not as likely because as Locke states:

[…] take seriously the idea of the prophecy only relating to the king or Cersei’s children. And again we must ask: why would Maggy give any more information to Cersei than what their agreement for three questions states? Why would she go off topic and tell Cersei about her death if it wasn’t related to her initial question, which was about the king and her children?

I think this in an important qualification that needs to be considered while deliberating. I agree that the rant must stem directly from Cersei’s question, and is not random.

Based on the textual evidence and the speculation provided in this article, here are my guesses:

The younger queen is Sansa. I never thought about this, and I think I may have become at least champion of, if not convinced, that Sansa is the one. I am absolutely in love with the idea of Sansa becoming a Queen in the North and kicking some Southron ass. She always wanted to be the Queen, Queen she shall be, and her story will come full circle when she receives justice/vengeance for the torture she has been put through in King’s Landing.

The valonqar is either Jamie or Stannis. I have always thought it would be Jamie; and I think it would be really interesting if the last person Cersei thinks would kill her is the man that does it. Perhaps they will go out together, as the text alludes to. My friends and I don’t think Jamie is going to make it out of the series alive, unfortunately, so it would be interesting if this is how he goes. However, personally, I kind of love the idea of Stannis being the valonqar. I’m Team Stannis in terms of the existing Westerosi players, anyway, and it’s true that his history of violence indicates a possible tie here, not to mention the clear connection of being the valonqar to Robert.

Great job on the speculation, Locke! I must have missed your first spec article? I’d love to read it if you would link me!

[Editor Note: The absence of Arianne from season 5 and presumably the following seasons of Game of Thrones may have ramifications for Arianne fulfilling the prophecy in the novels]

…is why the book-to-TV adaptations are potentially problematic. It may help us determine the relative importance of particular characters in-book before we even get a chance to speculate (e.g., whether Arianne could potentially be the younger queen – although I think this might be unlikely anyway).

(unless she marries Aegon!); at best she is might become Queen in the North, which would not cast down Cersei. Moreover, Cersei considers Sansa. So, cross out Sansa.

Good point. Dany might be the one, but I love Sansa’s arc and I would not be disappointed if she fulfilled that role.

I have mixed feelings about these theories. I don’t want to be “spoiled” (if I’m still around in 2030 or whenever GRRM finishes the series) but they are like a box of chocolate: I know I shouldn’t do so but I read them, and Locke has obviously put in a lot of thought. I hate the thought of Myrcella and Tommen getting killed because they are nice kids unlike their late unlamented (at least by Sincerely Thine) older brother. Locke has some interesting thoughts. I always thought perhaps the valonqar would be Jaime. But if, as Locke avers, Jaime is too obvious a candidate…well we know GRRM likes to avoid the obvious (though the world and his wife seem to have guessed who Jon Snow’s real mama is). Would (book) Tyrion’s hands be big enough to strangle Cersei? I know he strangled Shae but that was by tightening the necklace. There would be a sort of justice about Sansa being the younger, more beautiful queen.

I come here because this is a site devoted to the show and to hopefully avoid speculation and theories concerning GMs ambiguous writing style. Sigh, I guess its unavoidable.

Don’t many people think The Hound is the younger brother?

Cersei’s Champion is Robert Strong a.k.a. The Mountain. The faith militant will bring in someone to fight him from the Quiet Isle: aka, the reformed Sandor Clegane.

He’ll defeat his brother, thereby dooming Cersei to death.

Maybe. I think it’s another interesting twist on the valonqar theory, but I would stress what was suggested earlier: Maggy’s prophecy is likely tied into Cersei’s question about her and her king having children, therefore excluding The Hound or any other random character from the list of candidates.

Whether or not Shireen will become queen I cannot speculate, but I am another one who likes the character. Although I have caught up on the (existing)* books now, I first came across Shireen in the persona of Kerry Ingram as show Shireen, so it may be because of the actress that I like the character (though she isn’t changed so very greatly from the books, though in the books it is someone else who teacher Ser Davos to read – hope that’s not a spoiler, I still have not mastered the art of masking the spoiler on this site).

* Though it would be very strange if I had caught up on the books that don’t exist yet…..though I understand there are some random “Winds of Winter” chapters that have been released as tasters.

Dame of Mercia: But if, as Locke avers, Jaime is too obvious a candidate…well we know GRRM likes to avoid the obvious

Tyrion is the obvious candidate for most readers, not Jaime. And as krtmd notes, Tyrion is the obvious candidate for Cersei: and that is what really counts. Moreover, it should at least

to the reader before it happens that Jaime is the one. (Martin has left the clues, after all: Cersei is the elder twin.)

As for “obvious,” what becomes “obvious” to hardcore fans is far from “obvious.” Remember, there is serious “group think” for the tiny minority of readers and viewers that read and post on these type of boards. Most readers think it’s obvious that Wylla is Jon’s mother. Oh sure, they might pick up on a few of these things: but they don’t pick up on the bulk of them because: 1) they read the book once and then don’t think about it again until the next book; and, 2) they never discuss this stuff with anybody except perhaps when watching the TV show.

(This works both ways, I’ll note: the “group think” always leads some groups of hardcore fans to build mountains from molehills: Morna brings up one example above, and there are lots of other ones. Hardcore fans also always include a subset that gets far to immersed in the plot and minor narrative details to worry about the story, too: and that leads them down the wrong paths when the resolutions to the mysteries ultimately are story-oriented rather than detail-based.)

SerCountryFriedSteak, Well, one of the reasons she is on trial is whether her children are Robert’s or not. So the outcome of the trial is directly related to the wellbeing of her children and the question ““Will the king and I have children?”

but what about Walder, I mean hodor, which is not a name, it’s something very important?

I remember from the aGoT book that he doesn’t like bathing, except in very hot springs. Could be nothing, but Targaryens also like this. And he’s got silver/white hair

or maybe hodor is a magical word to control Walkers or Dragons lol

so Locke, maybe you could write something about “hodor” theory?

I agree with Sean C regarding Jaime and how that will happen. Its obvious to us but not to the characters which is the beauty and tragedy of it. And I see setup on the show too.

As for the younger queen…it has to be Sansa rather than Dany for two reasons

a. There’s no emotional or dramatic tension with Dany-she and Cersei have never even met. There’s no relationship there. It would be anti-climactic whereas the little dove/she wolf and the lioness have quite a history together.

B. Dany has played no role so far in taking away what Cersei loves while Sansa (unwittingly) was part of the death of Cersei’s first born and in Jamie’s desertion.

And for the record Cersei didn’t really consider Sansa a threat because she thought the Stark girl too stupid and weak. That might be why she argued for Joffrey to keep his engagement to her at the small council meeting instead of jumping on Tyrion’s idea of marrying him to Margery like everyone else did-she saw Sansa as a way *around* the prophecy.

Adrianne didn’t make it to the show so she can’t be the one and there’s no way Cersei was actually right about Margery.

I also really like the Stannis option for “the valonqar” (hate Jaime and Tyrion for that, because OMG the cheeeese). It can also kinda explain why Maggy used a Valyrian word all of a sudden (maybe she couldn’t remember the Westerosi word for brother-in-law?).

As for the younger queen, I still think that’s actually Sansa, Marg, Dany and Arianne all together and utterly self-fullfilling.

What about victarion? He has an injured hand from the battle of the shield islands, and rescues moqorro who started his journey with the fiery hand of the Lord of light. Victarion rants at length to the dusky woman about how he has always comported himself as a loyal and dutiful little brother to balon as was expected of him and is very bitter that euron never has. Plus Victarion has no qualms about killing women as he has already lost a wife to his iron mailed hands. Just another road to look down that no one that I’ve read even suspects, which to me means I’m probably on the right track

I like the theory on Sansa, I actually hadn’t given that much though. As much as I love Stannis, I can’t see him being the valonqar. If it’s not one of the Lannister brothers, I think it will be Edmure Tully.

zambi76: It can also kinda explain why Maggy used a Valyrian word all of a sudden (maybe she couldn’t remember the Westerosi word for brother-in-law?).

So she uses the incorrect Valyrian word?!? If there was a mistranslation, then it is that valonqur means

brother, not “little” brother: but, then “little” brother essentially means younger brother.

(Out of curiosity, how is this translated in other languages?)

And, please, proper drama is not cheesy. It would not be. Stannis would be something far worse than cheesy: he would be arbitrary. This is a modern story: the valonqur should be one of the other protagonist for whom this represents some basic conflict of heart. He’s not a monster (which rules out Tyrion!).

Nice article! My one thought is that why does the valonqar necessarily have to be a little brother of Cersei’s? Maggy talks of

Also does the term ‘little brother’ mean any younger brother or only the youngest in a line? It’s a grey area to be sure, but personally I tend to equate it more with the latter (which would then rule out Jaime if Tyrion were still around).

If we take any little brother, then Aegon VI is a credible valonqar given the way the books are shaping up.

If you want some real left field valonqars, then how about Rickon, or (assuming he really has done in Aeron by now) Euron.

Jon Snow’s name popping up as a possible valonquar may also have to do with that he might be Aerys’s son (presumably Lyanna is raped by him), and if Jaimie and Cersei are also his children (Aerys halving slept with Tywin’s wife), that makes them all half siblings. However, the theory is very far fetched and I think it’s more likely Jon is Rhaegar’s love-child. Jaimie is the stronger candidate. Tommen as a possible “dead” candidate is very interesting though.

This is EXACTLY what I was going to post after reading the article above. With all of the talk of king’s rights about kings sleeping with subordinate’s wives, Aerys could easily have done this if he knew about Rheagar and Lyanna. It would be a stretch, but still technically possible.

It could conceivably make sense and be consistent with the mythology of the story for Cersei and Jon Snow to be half brothers.

Yeah, sorry, I’m not changing my mind about either Tyrion or Jaime killing Cersei being unbelievably cheesy.

I’m not insisting on Stannis, just saying he’s an option I personally would find not all that random. (Bitch, stole his kingdom!)

As for the translation thingy, yeah, that’s some fanwanking from me, because as an ESL person it’s not unusal to insert words (often rather incorrect) of one language into the other if all else fails.

Oh, and if we go with the secret Targ stuff (I love it) I’m saying Dany is the valonqar (Cersei and Jaime’s little sister, oops gender mix-up).

I don’t know anything about a new trailer … but we finally have a possible date for the HBO Yearender video! If you go to the HBO Schedule website and type “Yearender” into the search bar, it says that the HBO 2014 Yearender will be available On Demand starting on December 21, 2014 (beneath the boxing one that’s already aired).

Is this what you’re referring to, HBO Nordic? Or do you know something else?

I agree with Sean C regarding Jaime and how that will happen.Its obvious to us but not to the characters which is the beauty and tragedy of it.And I see setup on the show too.

As for the younger queen…it has to be Sansa rather than Dany for two reasons .

This will come across like a contradiction of my own earlier argument regarding Jaime, but I’m fairly certain Dany is the YMBQ. I agree with you that, on a purely thematic level, it makes way more sense for it to be Sansa, from the perspective of Cersei’s arc. But when assessing these things I look at both theme and plot, and while there are clear indicators that Jaime could fit on both those points, on a plot level it really just does not feel like being the YMBQ has anything to do with Sansa’s arc at this point, even though she is becoming a “player”.

So you come to the site to learn about the show, but then click on something that clearly states that there will be discussion from the books that go beyond where the show is right now, and then complain that you found book discussion in there?

If you want to stay in the show world only, then don’t click on the book discussions. Pretty simple…

I read the books (twice) between seasons 1 and 2, but Ingram has definitely made the character her own in her very limited screen time. Book shireen is largely the same, though accompanied by patchface, who many readers believe to be a dispenser of significant prophecies. I just want her to matter down the road, and while it has been implied (in both media) that her king’s blood is important storywise, the main thrust of this (very good) article is that we should consider the unexpected, and I find her to be a tantalizing outlier.

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Ericb5 on Theories of Ice and Fire: Cersei’s prophecy and the Valonqar

Sean C. on Theories of Ice and Fire: Cersei’s prophecy and the Valonqar

Jared on Theories of Ice and Fire: Cersei’s prophecy and the Valonqar

zambi76 on Theories of Ice and Fire: Cersei’s prophecy and the Valonqar